The bank maintained its view of Brent crude oil at US$60/barrel during the year, but lowered its view on oil distribution next year to US$6/barrel. The viewMonthly crude oil price on US WTI crude oil during the year was lowered to US$620/barrel, and next year it is expected to be US$525/barrel.
Ross also reminded that economic effects and the construction of export infrastructure will be the key to US exports in the next few years. OilPrice also believes that future crude oil exports will depend more on the price difference between WTI and Brent crude oil, and the pipeline transportation capacity of the Permian Basin, that is, the speed and cost of oil transport from West Texas to Gulf Coast ports. .
The crisis caused by the killing of Khashoggi is getting worse. The market has been worried that as the oil market tightens due to US sanctions on Iran, Saudi Arabia may reduce the supply of crude oil in retaliation for possible sanctions due to the killing of Khashoggi.
Secondly, on Thursday (May 5th) Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech. The Fed decided to emphasize the gradual increase in interest rates. If Powell continues to reiterate the gradual increase in interest rates in his speech next week, the US dollar will inevitably once again say that it will suppress crude oil prices.
The impact on international oil prices may not be obvious, because although imported US oil production has declined, Russian oil imports have increased, and oil demand has not fallen sharply, which has not had a significant impact on international oil prices.
In addition, Iranian Petroleum Minister Zangane asked for an additional topic to be added to the conference to discuss how OPEC supports member countries that have suffered illegal, unilateral and extraterritorial sanctions. Currently, Iran’s crude oil exports have not been substantially affected, and all parties are also making active efforts and attempts to save the Iran nuclear agreement. Venezuela also wrote to OPEC, calling for unity and joint response to sanctions. If the threat of US sanctions is effectively resolved, the supply tightening crisMonthly crude oil priceis will also be eased to some extent.
The United States’ sanctions on Iran will come into effect on the 5th. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department has stated that the treasury departments of various countries should reduce Iran’s crude oil imports within six months, otherwise relevant companies will also be subject to corresponding sanctions.
Prior to this, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 8 adjustments. During the year, gasoline was raised by RMB 00/ton and diesel was by RMB 060/ton. The 9th refined oil price adjustment this year is also coming soon, but this round of price adjustment cycle coincides with the National Day holiday, and it is expected that oil prices will increase with a high probability, forming a three-game streak.
The data also shows that 80% of Canadian oil is exported to the United States, but the United States has reduced the price too hard. It has imported Canadian oil at the price of cabbage, then refined it into refined oil, and then exported it to Canada at double the price. For example: In WTI oil price is 50 US dollars / barrel, Canadian oil is 5 US dollars cheaper than American oil.