Around 4:50 Beijing time, the Senate passed a two-year budget agreement that included the expedient financing bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for voting. At around 8:0 Beijing time, foreign media claimed that the US spending bill has been passed with enough votes in the House of RepreseIndian crude oil marketntatives and will be submitted to US President Trump for signature. The US government shutdown is about to end.
Both Nigeria and Libya are members of OPEC. Both countries will hold elections, and the crude oil production of these two countries has also been very unstable recently. Royal Bank of Canada said that the situation in these two countries will play a very important role in the oil market. Moreover, the supply of these two countries may drop by 500,000 barrels per day in stages, and the situation of the two elections will put oil prices facing a greater test.
And it is currently at the peak of refinery construction, and with the reduction of heavy crude oil production in Venezuela and Australia, there are limited heavy crude oil importers from which refineries can choose. It is expected that imports of Canadian heavy oil will be increased in the future.
According to a report by US media citing sources familiar with the matter on June 2, the White House is currently preparing for a possible meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin. According to reports, this potential meeting may ease tensions between the United States and Russia. However, it is reported that consultations on this meeting are still in the early stages, and the two sides still need to negotiate the time and place of the meeting.
Today we have another EIA crude oil inventory data. This week, due to a day off on Columbus Day in the United States on Monday, the EIA originally scheduled to be announced on Wednesday was postponed to this evening. The API announced in the morning unexpectedly increased, and oil prices fell under pressure. Moreover, oil prices have risen to a maximum of US$560 per barrel recently, and are currently below US$50. Speaking of which, there are not many recent negative factors.
Coupled with Libya's suspension of exports due to the interruption of two major crude oils due to force majeure, crude oil production continues to decline, and the country's crude oil production haIndian crude oil markets now fallen by about 850,000 barrels per day. Affected by this, oil prices are expected to rise further.
According to a report from Platts in Singapore on May 9th, an official of Iran’s National Petroleum Corporation/NIOC said on Wednesday that Iran’s oil has increased all grades of crude oil it loaded from Hark Island and shipped to Asia in June. The official selling price.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s EIA report released on Wednesday May 6 showed that crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 10,000 barrels in the week ending May, and recorded growth for 4 consecutive weeks. In addition, last week, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased by 20,000 barrels to 0.7 million barrels per day, recording growth for two consecutive weeks.
In terms of potential risks, the policy error of the Fed or the European Central Bank has surpassed the Sino-US trade dispute and became the tail risk that fund managers are most worried about, ranking first in tail risk for the first time since February last year. Secondly, due to geopolitical risks, the oil price rose to US$00/barrel and also squeezed into the top three tail risks. It is worth noting that this is the first time this risk has been on the list.