On April 26, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened. According to the current international oil price trend, domestic oil prices will usher in the seventh increase in this year, anBloomberg U.S. crude oil export band the increase will exceed 00 yuan, which also indicates that the cost of five-use oil will rise in 209.
So in general, the focus of the market this week is on Trump. Any recent move by Trump may cause an uproar on an international scale, whether it is the relationship with Russia or the further development of Syria. To combat, Trump's actions are worthy of investors' attention.
The EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy, Mogherini, said that the International Atomic Energy Agency has published 0 reports confirming Iran’s compliance with the agreement. If someone has information to the contrary, they should report it to the International Atomic Energy Agency or a joint committee formed by the parties to the agreement.
OPEC member states are caught in a typical prisoner’s dilemma. If they continue to expand production and oil prices go down, everyone will not make a profit; if they sacrifice their market share and limit production to raise oil prices, everyone is good. When the oil price was about to exceed the minimum break-even price of US$25 in 206, after several rounds of negotiations, the four OPEC members agreed to reduce production and destocking in order to stabilize international oil prices.
James Hamilton, an economist who has long studied the impact of oil prices, found that the rapid rise in crude oil prices is a sign of economic crisis. Since the Second World War, 0 peaks in the US business cycle have occurred during the period of rapid oil price increases. Only in 970, 1997 and 200, the sharp increase in oil prices did not lead to an inflection point.
Last week, in just a few days, the Argentine peso fell nearly 20%, making the peso fall more than 50% against the dollar so far this year. The Argentine central bank desperately raised its interest rate from 45% to 60%, hoping to prevent the peso from falling continuously. The peso rebounded slightly against the US dollar and is now trading at more than 7 pesos against the US dollar. Bloomberg U.S. crude oil export banIn early August, the exchange rate between the two was 27 pesos to the U.S. dollar and 8 pesos to the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the year.
The withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement has caused market concerns about the decline in crude oil production, which has pushed up oil prices. Market participants said that the Iran nuclear agreement is only a key factor affecting oil prices. The more important factor is that the crude oil production of various oil-producing countries is also facing the risk of declining.
However, at present, Iran is supported by the European Union and Russia. Iran’s crude oil exports will not be affected in a short time. At the same time, most of Iran’s crude oil is shipped to Asia, especially, and the increasing demand for crude oil is well met. As a result of Iran’s crude oil exports, it is difficult to have a substantial impact on Iran in the short term.
Therefore, in general, the data that can affect the crude oil market this week is basically based on the trend of the US dollar. If the US dollar rises further, it will suppress the rise of crude oil. If the US dollar falls, it can be crude oil. The market provides support. Of course, the two major inventory data fixed every week are still indicators that crude oil can focus on. The latest U.S. drilling number announced last week is still increasing. Therefore, this week we need to be wary of the increase of the two major inventories again to suppress the expansion of oil prices. .