Spot crude oil investment has high profits, high risks and high risks. It is normal to do a good job of doubling the funds, but we must pay attention to methods and methods during the operation. In addition, we must have a normal mentality and technical capabilities. The following editor of China Oil Network brings you the basic profit meAdal crude oil analysisthods that should be available in investment!
In the past two years, crude oil prices have been widely supported by voluntary production cuts led by OPEC. This month the United States announced that it would withdraw from the 205 Iran nuclear agreement and reimpose sanctions on this OPEC member state, which also boosted oil prices. In addition, the recent domestic political and economic crisis in oil-producing Venezuela continues to ferment, which may also affect the country's oil supply in the long run.
So it is very necessary to find the right position to go short. When oil prices fall, there is often a counter-drawing at a certain support position. At this time, it is mainly because the short-selling power temporarily fades. When the counter-drawing reaches an important resistance level, the shorts will re-enter the market and the buying will gradually disappear. It began to outweigh the long power, which caused the price of crude oil to continue to fall. Shorting at this time is the best time and location.
Zahir said that the sharp increase in the number of drilling rigs shows that the output is constantly rising. Unless there is a severe supply disruption, it will be difficult for U.S. oil to rise from $70 to $80. However, as the US sanctions on Iran approached, it provided effective support for oil prices in a short time.
Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report that political and economic events may reshape the oil market for a long time, and the uncertainty surrounding the balance of global supply and demand is almost growing. Before the sanctions were imposed on Iran, the crude oil exports of several other OPEC member countries increased sharply, and these effects are putting pressure on oil prices. The market will be in trouble in the next two months, and the decline in Iranian crude oil exports will become a reality. Oil prices are expected to reach $85 by the end of the year
The change of position occupies an important position in the price operatiAdal crude oil analysison and represents the main force’s willingness and intention to hold positions. It is divided into active increase and decrease of position and passive increase and decrease of position. Through the change of position, the main position cost can be estimated, which provides investors in operation. Certain trading basis, generally speaking, if the position change on a certain contract on the day exceeds 20%, it may induce a reversal of the original trend of the market.
Commodities as a basket rebounded in 208 and peaked in mid-May. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rose 2% from a month-to-May high, but has since fallen to April's level and stalled.
Specific data show that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States as of June 2 increased by 220,000, which was less than the expected increase of 250,000. The unexpected drop in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week indicated that labor market conditions have further tightened and the labor market is close to or in a state of full employment. This year's unemployment rate has dropped by ten percent. The current unemployment rate has reached the year-end level expected by the Federal Reserve.
Fundamental analysis of spot crude oil: On Wednesday, February 2nd, at 2:0 Beijing time, the latest crude oil inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA stated that US crude oil inventories increased by 2.26 million barrels in the week of February 6, ending the previous four consecutive weeks of decline. situation. Before and after the release of EIA data, oil prices fluctuated widely. Specific data show that in the week of February 6th, the US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2.26 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 2.5 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 250,000 barrels; the gasoline inventory decreased by 9 million barrels, and the expected increase was 50,000 barrels, and the previous value increased by 470,000 barrels. Barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 2.42 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 650,000 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 720,000 barrels. Before the EIA announced crude oil inventories, oil prices fell short-term. WTI crude oil in the United States fell to as low as 59 US dollars per barrel. However, after the data was released, oil prices quickly rose to 59 US dollars per barrel, and then oil prices fell into a relatively wide range of shocks. Spot crude oil market review: US WTI crude oil February futures closed down 0.89 US dollars, or 6%, to 546 US dollars per barrel on Wednesday, February 2. Brent crude oil February futures closed down 0.8 US dollars, or 52%, to 549 US dollars per barrel on Wednesday. The unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week surprised the market. At the same time, news of the resumption of production in major oil fields from Libya also increased emotional concerns. However, the fall in the US dollar still limited the downside of oil prices. US WTI crude oil futures prices hit a minimum of US$54/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures prices touched a minimum of US$5/barrel. Spot crude oil operation recommendations: 580 first-line empty orders enter the market, 500 replenishment, default stop loss, the target first look at the low point 5 below, strict stop profit and stop loss. If you break the position, you can lighten up your position to see a new low. Friends of spot crude oil with a long position above 5 yesterday, it is recommended to stop the loss when it is near 58 to 5 dollars, and double the position of the long position, enter a short position, and wait for the market to fall below 55 to recover the loss and make a profit. .